Dumont De Chassart, Adrien vs Kirk, Chris prediction for May 12, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Kirk, Chris 88 - Dumont De Chassart, Adrien 74. Dumont De Chassart, Adrien is favored with a 61.4% win probability. The spread is -0.1.
Kirk, Chris
+0.39
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson
Dumont De Chassart, Adrien
+0.29
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Kirk, ChrisDumont De Chassart, Adrien
-112
Best Odds
+16.3%
Edge
1.5u HIGH
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Dumont De Chassart, Adrien
677481
Kirk, Chris
818895
Tournament Context
Event
THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson
Course
TPC Craig Ranch
Field
147 players
Wind
14 mph
Temp
82°F
Conditions
harder (+0.7)
Player Profile — Dumont De Chassart, Adrien
Strokes Gained
+0.29/round
Tour Avg
Course Fit
excellent
+0.454 SG adj
Expected Finish
74th / 147
Matchup Analysis
Dumont De Chassart, Adrien
+0.29 SG
EF 74th
Skill Gap
-0.10 SG/round
essentially a coin flip
Kirk, Chris
+0.39 SG
EF 88th · Tour Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
61.4%
Books Say
52.8%
Edge
+16.3%
Dumont De Chassart, Adrien vs Kirk, Chris: Model gives Dumont De Chassart, Adrien 61.4% win probability vs 52.8% implied (+16.3% edge). Expected finish: 74.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Dumont De Chassart, Adrien 61.4%
+16.3 pts
Spread
-0.1
+16.3 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →