Dumont De Chassart, Adrien vs Kirk, Chris prediction for May 20, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Kirk, Chris 88 - Dumont De Chassart, Adrien 74. Dumont De Chassart, Adrien is favored with a 60.9% win probability. The spread is -0.1.
Kirk, Chris
+0.44
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson
Dumont De Chassart, Adrien
+0.29
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Kirk, ChrisDumont De Chassart, Adrien
-112
Best Odds
+15.3%
Edge
1.5u HIGH
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Dumont De Chassart, Adrien
677481
Kirk, Chris
818895
Tournament Context
Event
THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson
Course
TPC Craig Ranch
Field
147 players
Wind
15 mph
Temp
81°F
Conditions
harder (+0.8)
Player Profile — Dumont De Chassart, Adrien
Strokes Gained
+0.29/round
Tour Avg
Course Fit
excellent
+0.454 SG adj
Expected Finish
74th / 147
Matchup Analysis
Dumont De Chassart, Adrien
+0.29 SG
EF 74th
Skill Gap
-0.10 SG/round
essentially a coin flip
Kirk, Chris
+0.44 SG
EF 88th · Tour Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
60.9%
Books Say
52.8%
Edge
+15.3%
Dumont De Chassart, Adrien vs Kirk, Chris: Model gives Dumont De Chassart, Adrien 60.9% win probability vs 52.8% implied (+15.3% edge). Expected finish: 74.
AI Intelligence Analysis
STRONG BET +1GREEN ZONE0.6% WR (n=380)
Dumont has strong course fit (+0.454 SG) and baseline skill (+0.293 SG); Kirk is mid-field. 16.1% edge on -112 is solid but priced fairly—secondary pick to Dumont vs Parry.
Key Factors
- Course fit: Dumont +0.454 SG (very strong TPC Craig Ranch fit, repeated edge)
- SG Total: +0.293 (Dumont 0.29 SG/round better)
- Expected finish: Dumont 72 vs Kirk 73+ (clear but tight separation)
- Odds: -112 (implied 52.8% vs model 61.4% = +8.5% edge)
- Skill differential: -0.096 (nearly even, course fit drives majority of edge)
Risk Factors
- This is Dumont's SECOND matchup in the edge list (also vs Parry). Avoid over-concentrating on one player.
- Kirk is a solid mid-field player; not a clear fade candidate
- Expected finish separation (72 vs 73) is tight; variance-driven outcome likely
COURSE FIT EDGESECONDARY PICKDUMONT REPETITION
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Dumont De Chassart, Adrien 60.9%
+15.3 pts
Spread
-0.1
+15.3 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →