Dumont De Chassart, Adrien vs Kirk, Chris prediction for May 21, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Kirk, Chris 87 - Dumont De Chassart, Adrien 73. Dumont De Chassart, Adrien is favored with a 61.3% win probability. The spread is -0.1.
Kirk, Chris
+0.44
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson
Dumont De Chassart, Adrien
+0.29
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Kirk, ChrisDumont De Chassart, Adrien
-112
Best Odds
+16.1%
Edge
1.5u HIGH
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Dumont De Chassart, Adrien
667380
Kirk, Chris
808794
Tournament Context
Event
THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson
Course
TPC Craig Ranch
Field
147 players
Wind
15 mph
Temp
82°F
Conditions
harder (+0.8)
Player Profile — Dumont De Chassart, Adrien
Strokes Gained
+0.29/round
Tour Avg
Course Fit
excellent
+0.454 SG adj
Expected Finish
73th / 147
Matchup Analysis
Dumont De Chassart, Adrien
+0.29 SG
EF 73th
Skill Gap
-0.10 SG/round
essentially a coin flip
Kirk, Chris
+0.44 SG
EF 87th · Tour Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
61.3%
Books Say
52.8%
Edge
+16.1%
Dumont De Chassart, Adrien vs Kirk, Chris: Model gives Dumont De Chassart, Adrien 61.3% win probability vs 52.8% implied (+16.1% edge). Expected finish: 73.
AI Intelligence Analysis
STRONG BET +1GREEN ZONE0.6% WR (n=380)
Dumont's +0.454 course fit dominates even with -0.096 skill gap; finish matrix delivers 60.92% model vs 52.83% market (+15.3% edge) — venue specialization wins.
Key Factors
- Course fit: +0.454 (Dumont exceptional at TPC Craig Ranch — top edge on slate)
- Skill gap: -0.096 to Kirk (Kirk slightly better on skill)
- Dual matchups: This appears twice on slate (vs Parry +22.6%, vs Kirk +15.3%) — Dumont is major beneficiary of venue
- EF: 73.5 (Dumont mid-70s finish, Kirk higher)
- Edge: +15.3% despite skill gap disadvantage — pure course fit dominance
Risk Factors
- Kirk is solid player; skill advantage should matter more than it does
- Rain may compress course fit edges slightly
- DraftKings -112 is moderate negative odds
COURSE FITSTRONG EDGEREPEAT PLAYER
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Dumont De Chassart, Adrien 61.3%
+16.1 pts
Spread
-0.1
+16.1 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →