Dumont De Chassart, Adrien vs Parry, John prediction for May 20, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Parry, John 78 - Dumont De Chassart, Adrien 74. Dumont De Chassart, Adrien is favored with a 59.5% win probability. The spread is -0.06.
Parry, John
+0.34
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson
Dumont De Chassart, Adrien
+0.29
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Parry, JohnDumont De Chassart, Adrien
+106
Best Odds
+22.6%
Edge
1.5u HIGH
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Dumont De Chassart, Adrien
677481
Parry, John
717885
Tournament Context
Event
THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson
Course
TPC Craig Ranch
Field
147 players
Wind
15 mph
Temp
81°F
Conditions
harder (+0.8)
Player Profile — Dumont De Chassart, Adrien
Strokes Gained
+0.29/round
Tour Avg
Course Fit
excellent
+0.454 SG adj
Expected Finish
74th / 147
Matchup Analysis
Dumont De Chassart, Adrien
+0.29 SG
EF 74th
Skill Gap
-0.06 SG/round
essentially a coin flip
Parry, John
+0.34 SG
EF 78th · Tour Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
59.5%
Books Say
48.5%
Edge
+22.6%
Dumont De Chassart, Adrien vs Parry, John: Model gives Dumont De Chassart, Adrien 59.5% win probability vs 48.5% implied (+22.6% edge). Expected finish: 74.
AI Intelligence Analysis
STRONG BET +1GREEN ZONE0.6% WR (n=380)
Dumont has exceptional course fit (+0.454 SG); Parry is a back-of-field specialist. 23.3% edge reflects a 0.29 SG skill gap + favorable setup—plus odds (+106) sweeten value.
Key Factors
- Course fit: Dumont +0.454 SG (very strong TPC Craig Ranch fit)
- SG Total: +0.293 (Dumont is 0.29 SG/round better base skill)
- Expected finish: Dumont 72 vs Parry 85+ (clear separation)
- Odds: +106 (implied 48.5% but model says 59.9%)
- Market edge: 23.3% edge on plus-money bet = excellent value
Risk Factors
- Parry is a big underdog (EF 85.5); if he plays well, Dumont may not win as expected
- Plus-money odds suggest sharps are still skeptical; watch for line movement
- Course fit is significant but not extreme—Dumont's edge could vanish in a cold round
ELITE EDGECOURSE FIT STRONGPLUS MONEY VALUE
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Dumont De Chassart, Adrien 59.5%
+22.6 pts
Spread
-0.1
+22.6 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →