Dumont De Chassart, Adrien vs Parry, John prediction for May 21, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Parry, John 78 - Dumont De Chassart, Adrien 73. Dumont De Chassart, Adrien is favored with a 59.7% win probability. The spread is -0.06.
Parry, John
+0.34
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson
Dumont De Chassart, Adrien
+0.29
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Parry, JohnDumont De Chassart, Adrien
+105
Best Odds
+22.4%
Edge
1.5u HIGH
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Dumont De Chassart, Adrien
667380
Parry, John
717885
Tournament Context
Event
THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson
Course
TPC Craig Ranch
Field
147 players
Wind
15 mph
Temp
82°F
Conditions
harder (+0.8)
Player Profile — Dumont De Chassart, Adrien
Strokes Gained
+0.29/round
Tour Avg
Course Fit
excellent
+0.454 SG adj
Expected Finish
73th / 147
Matchup Analysis
Dumont De Chassart, Adrien
+0.29 SG
EF 73th
Skill Gap
-0.06 SG/round
essentially a coin flip
Parry, John
+0.34 SG
EF 78th · Tour Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
59.7%
Books Say
48.8%
Edge
+22.4%
Dumont De Chassart, Adrien vs Parry, John: Model gives Dumont De Chassart, Adrien 59.7% win probability vs 48.8% implied (+22.4% edge). Expected finish: 73.
AI Intelligence Analysis
STRONG BET +1GREEN ZONE0.6% WR (n=380)
Dumont De Chassart's +0.454 course fit and +0.293 SG total compensate for near-zero skill difference, delivering +22.6% edge; implied probability substantially lower than 59.51% model.
Key Factors
- Course fit: +0.454 (Dumont exceptionally well-suited to TPC Craig Ranch; very positive adjustment)
- SG total: +0.293 (Dumont edge in all-around skill)
- Opponent weakness: Parry is mid-pack player with minimal course fit edge
- EF gap: 73.5 vs ~90+ implies significant finish position advantage
- Edge: +22.6% — Books underestimate venue-specific advantage
Risk Factors
- Rain forecast may flatten course fit edges by compressing variance
- Parry can play competitively on any US course; no major weakness to exploit
- Matchup volatility remains ~35-40% tail risk
COURSE FITSTRONG EDGELINE VALUE
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Dumont De Chassart, Adrien 59.7%
+22.4 pts
Spread
-0.1
+22.4 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →