Echavarria, Nico vs Hoge, Tom prediction for June 2, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Hoge, Tom 103 - Echavarria, Nico 51. Echavarria, Nico is favored with a 59.7% win probability. The spread is 0.35.
Hoge, Tom
-0.26
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • the Memorial Tournament presented by Workday
Echavarria, Nico
+0.21
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Hoge, TomEchavarria, Nico
-123
Best Odds
+8.1%
Edge
1.0u MEDIUM
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Echavarria, Nico
445158
Hoge, Tom
96103110
Tournament Context
Event
the Memorial Tournament presented by Workday
Course
Muirfield Village GC
Field
72 players
Wind
11 mph
Temp
78°F
Conditions
harder (+0.5)
Player Profile — Echavarria, Nico
Strokes Gained
+0.21/round
Tour Avg
Course Fit
poor
-0.078 SG adj
Expected Finish
51th / 72
Matchup Analysis
Echavarria, Nico
+0.21 SG
EF 51th
Skill Gap
+0.35 SG/round
tight edge for Echavarria, Nico
Hoge, Tom
-0.26 SG
EF 103th · Below Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
59.7%
Books Say
55.2%
Edge
+8.1%
Echavarria, Nico vs Hoge, Tom: Model gives Echavarria, Nico 59.7% win probability vs 55.2% implied (+8.1% edge). Skill advantage: +0.35 SG/round. Expected finish: 51.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Echavarria, Nico 59.7%
+8.1 pts
Spread
+0.3
+8.1 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →