Fisk, Steven vs Bauchou, Zach prediction for May 20, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Bauchou, Zach 77 - Fisk, Steven 90. Fisk, Steven is favored with a 60.6% win probability. The spread is -0.12.
Bauchou, Zach
+0.36
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson
Fisk, Steven
+0.03
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Bauchou, ZachFisk, Steven
-114
Best Odds
+13.7%
Edge
1.5u HIGH
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Fisk, Steven
839097
Bauchou, Zach
707784
Tournament Context
Event
THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson
Course
TPC Craig Ranch
Field
147 players
Wind
15 mph
Temp
81°F
Conditions
harder (+0.8)
Player Profile — Fisk, Steven
Strokes Gained
+0.03/round
Tour Avg
Course Fit
neutral
+0.108 SG adj
Expected Finish
90th / 147
Matchup Analysis
Fisk, Steven
+0.03 SG
EF 90th
Skill Gap
-0.12 SG/round
tight edge for Bauchou, Zach
Bauchou, Zach
+0.36 SG
EF 77th · Tour Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
60.6%
Books Say
53.3%
Edge
+13.7%
Fisk, Steven vs Bauchou, Zach: Model gives Fisk, Steven 60.5% win probability vs 53.3% implied (+13.7% edge). Skill advantage: -0.12 SG/round. Expected finish: 90.
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +0YELLOW ZONE0.5% WR (n=380)
Fisk has minimal positive course fit (+0.108 SG) against Bauchou, despite negative overall SG (-0.094 implied). Expected finishes are tied (~90), and 12.9% edge on -115 odds is slim for tight matchup. Marginal play.
Key Factors
- SG Total: Fisk +0.031 (nearly neutral)
- Course fit: Fisk +0.108 SG (modest advantage)
- Expected finish: Fisk 90 vs Bauchou 90+ (identical, variance-driven)
- Odds: -115 (implied 53.5% vs model 60.4% = +6.9% edge)
- Skill differential: -0.125 (Fisk is slightly worse in base skill)
Risk Factors
- Expected finishes are tied (~90); outcome is noise
- Fisk has negative skill differential vs Bauchou (-0.125), so course fit must drive the entire edge
- Course fit advantage is modest (+0.108), not substantial
MARGINAL EDGEIDENTICAL EFWEAK SKILL POSITIONVARIANCE PLAY
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Fisk, Steven 60.6%
+13.7 pts
Spread
-0.1
+13.7 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →