Fisk, Steven vs Bauchou, Zach prediction for May 22, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Bauchou, Zach 94 - Fisk, Steven 90. Fisk, Steven is favored with a 60.6% win probability. The spread is -0.12.
Bauchou, Zach
+0.16
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson
Fisk, Steven
+0.03
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Bauchou, ZachFisk, Steven
-114
Best Odds
+13.7%
Edge
1.5u HIGH
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Fisk, Steven
839097
Bauchou, Zach
8794101
Tournament Context
Event
THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson
Course
TPC Craig Ranch
Field
147 players
Wind
15 mph
Temp
81°F
Conditions
harder (+0.8)
Player Profile — Fisk, Steven
Strokes Gained
+0.03/round
Tour Avg
Course Fit
neutral
+0.108 SG adj
Expected Finish
90th / 147
Matchup Analysis
Fisk, Steven
+0.03 SG
EF 90th
Skill Gap
-0.12 SG/round
tight edge for Bauchou, Zach
Bauchou, Zach
+0.16 SG
EF 94th · Tour Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
60.6%
Books Say
53.3%
Edge
+13.7%
Fisk, Steven vs Bauchou, Zach: Model gives Fisk, Steven 60.5% win probability vs 53.3% implied (+13.7% edge). Skill advantage: -0.12 SG/round. Expected finish: 90.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Fisk, Steven 60.6%
+13.7 pts
Spread
-0.1
+13.7 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →