Fitzpatrick, Alex vs Day, Jason prediction for May 15, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Day, Jason 98 - Fitzpatrick, Alex 98. Fitzpatrick, Alex is favored with a 58.0% win probability. The spread is 0.06.
Day, Jason
+0.75
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • PGA Championship
Fitzpatrick, Alex
+0.80
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Day, JasonFitzpatrick, Alex
-106
Best Odds
+12.6%
Edge
1.5u HIGH
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Fitzpatrick, Alex
9198105
Day, Jason
9198105
Tournament Context
Event
PGA Championship
Course
Aronimink Golf Club
Field
156 players
Player Profile — Fitzpatrick, Alex
Strokes Gained
+0.80/round
Above Avg
Course Fit
neutral
+0.078 SG adj
Expected Finish
98th / 156
Matchup Analysis
Fitzpatrick, Alex
+0.80 SG
EF 98th
Skill Gap
+0.06 SG/round
essentially a coin flip
Day, Jason
+0.75 SG
EF 98th · Above Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
58.0%
Books Say
51.5%
Edge
+12.6%
Fitzpatrick, Alex vs Day, Jason: Model gives Fitzpatrick, Alex 58.0% win probability vs 51.5% implied (+12.6% edge). Expected finish: 98.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Fitzpatrick, Alex 58.0%
+12.6 pts
Spread
+0.1
+12.6 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →