Fitzpatrick, Alex vs Fox, Ryan prediction for June 4, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Fox, Ryan 79 - Fitzpatrick, Alex 42. Fitzpatrick, Alex is favored with a 60.6% win probability. The spread is 0.13.
Fox, Ryan
+0.68
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • the Memorial Tournament presented by Workday
Fitzpatrick, Alex
+0.71
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Fox, RyanFitzpatrick, Alex
-130
Best Odds
+7.1%
Edge
1.0u MEDIUM
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Fitzpatrick, Alex
354249
Fox, Ryan
727986
Tournament Context
Event
the Memorial Tournament presented by Workday
Course
Muirfield Village GC
Field
72 players
Wind
13 mph
Temp
82°F
Conditions
harder (+0.6)
Player Profile — Fitzpatrick, Alex
Strokes Gained
+0.71/round
Above Avg
Course Fit
neutral
+0.077 SG adj
Expected Finish
42th / 72
Matchup Analysis
Fitzpatrick, Alex
+0.71 SG
EF 42th
Skill Gap
+0.13 SG/round
tight edge for Fitzpatrick, Alex
Fox, Ryan
+0.68 SG
EF 79th · Above Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
60.6%
Books Say
56.5%
Edge
+7.1%
Fitzpatrick, Alex vs Fox, Ryan: Model gives Fitzpatrick, Alex 60.6% win probability vs 56.5% implied (+7.1% edge). Skill advantage: +0.13 SG/round. Expected finish: 42.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Fitzpatrick, Alex 60.6%
+7.1 pts
Spread
+0.1
+7.1 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →