Fitzpatrick, Alex vs Homa, Max prediction for April 29, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Homa, Max 27 - Fitzpatrick, Alex 24. Fitzpatrick, Alex is favored with a 56.5% win probability. The spread is 0.15.
Homa, Max
+0.45
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • Truist Championship
Fitzpatrick, Alex
+0.59
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Homa, MaxFitzpatrick, Alex
-110
Best Odds
+7.9%
Edge
1.0u MEDIUM
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Fitzpatrick, Alex
172431
Homa, Max
202734
Tournament Context
Event
Truist Championship
Course
Quail Hollow Club
Field
72 players
Wind
11 mph
Temp
75°F
Conditions
harder (+0.5)
Player Profile — Fitzpatrick, Alex
Strokes Gained
+0.59/round
Above Avg
Course Fit
neutral
+0.131 SG adj
Expected Finish
24th / 72
Matchup Analysis
Fitzpatrick, Alex
+0.59 SG
EF 24th
Skill Gap
+0.15 SG/round
tight edge for Fitzpatrick, Alex
Homa, Max
+0.45 SG
EF 27th · Tour Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
56.5%
Books Say
52.4%
Edge
+7.9%
Fitzpatrick, Alex vs Homa, Max: Model gives Fitzpatrick, Alex 56.5% win probability vs 52.4% implied (+7.9% edge). Skill advantage: +0.15 SG/round. Expected finish: 24.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Fitzpatrick, Alex 56.5%
+7.9 pts
Spread
+0.1
+7.9 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →