Fitzpatrick, Alex vs Homa, Max prediction for May 5, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Homa, Max 27 - Fitzpatrick, Alex 24. Fitzpatrick, Alex is favored with a 56.6% win probability. The spread is 0.15.
Homa, Max
+0.45
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • Truist Championship
Fitzpatrick, Alex
+0.59
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Homa, MaxFitzpatrick, Alex
-110
Best Odds
+8.0%
Edge
1.0u MEDIUM
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Fitzpatrick, Alex
172431
Homa, Max
202734
Tournament Context
Event
Truist Championship
Course
Quail Hollow Club
Field
72 players
Wind
9 mph
Temp
72°F
Conditions
harder (+0.4)
Player Profile — Fitzpatrick, Alex
Strokes Gained
+0.59/round
Above Avg
Course Fit
neutral
+0.131 SG adj
Expected Finish
24th / 72
Matchup Analysis
Fitzpatrick, Alex
+0.59 SG
EF 24th
Skill Gap
+0.15 SG/round
tight edge for Fitzpatrick, Alex
Homa, Max
+0.45 SG
EF 27th · Tour Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
56.6%
Books Say
52.4%
Edge
+8.0%
Fitzpatrick, Alex vs Homa, Max: Model gives Fitzpatrick, Alex 56.6% win probability vs 52.4% implied (+8.0% edge). Skill advantage: +0.15 SG/round. Expected finish: 24.
AI Intelligence Analysis
STRONG BET +1
Homa 61.0% h2h vs 50.5% implied = +20.8% edge; Homa's exceptional +1.40 course fit (best in field) overcomes -0.15 SG skill disadvantage; expected finish 24.3 supports h2h edge.
Key Factors
- Homa course fit +1.403 SG (TOP-3 in field, second only to McIlroy's +2.54)
- Homa SG +0.45 total (mid-tier) but course fit (+1.403) elevates him significantly
- Expected finish 24.3 (solid mid-pack) provides h2h foundation
- Pinnacle -102 (50.5% implied) vs 61.0% model = +20.8% edge
Risk Factors
- Fitzpatrick's profile weak in top-40 cutoff; likely stronger player than data suggests
- Homa's SG-app only +0.07 (weak) — relies on course fit; vulnerable to course condition changes
- Skill deficit (-0.15 SG) creates baseline headwind that only course fit can overcome
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Fitzpatrick, Alex 56.6%
+8.0 pts
Spread
+0.1
+8.0 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →