Fitzpatrick, Alex vs Reitan, Kristoffer prediction for June 17, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Reitan, Kristoffer 40 - Fitzpatrick, Alex 85. Fitzpatrick, Alex is favored with a 58.4% win probability. The spread is 0.01.
Reitan, Kristoffer
+0.94
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • U.S. Open
Fitzpatrick, Alex
+1.03
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Reitan, KristofferFitzpatrick, Alex
-105
Best Odds
+14.1%
Edge
1.5u HIGH
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Fitzpatrick, Alex
788592
Reitan, Kristoffer
334047
Tournament Context
Event
U.S. Open
Course
Shinnecock Hills Golf Club
Field
156 players
Player Profile — Fitzpatrick, Alex
Strokes Gained
+1.03/round
Tour Elite
Course Fit
good
+0.166 SG adj
Expected Finish
85th / 156
Matchup Analysis
Fitzpatrick, Alex
+1.03 SG
EF 85th
Skill Gap
+0.01 SG/round
essentially a coin flip
Reitan, Kristoffer
+0.94 SG
EF 40th · Above Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
58.4%
Books Say
51.2%
Edge
+14.1%
Fitzpatrick, Alex vs Reitan, Kristoffer: Model gives Fitzpatrick, Alex 58.4% win probability vs 51.2% implied (+14.1% edge). Expected finish: 85.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Fitzpatrick, Alex 58.4%
+14.1 pts
Spread
+0.0
+14.1 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →