Fitzpatrick, Matt vs Fleetwood, Tommy prediction for May 10, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Fleetwood, Tommy 66 - Fitzpatrick, Matt 62. Fitzpatrick, Matt is favored with a 55.5% win probability. The spread is 0.11.
Fleetwood, Tommy
+1.66
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • PGA Championship
Fitzpatrick, Matt
+1.77
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Fleetwood, TommyFitzpatrick, Matt
-105
Best Odds
+8.4%
Edge
1.0u MEDIUM
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Fitzpatrick, Matt
556269
Fleetwood, Tommy
596673
Tournament Context
Event
PGA Championship
Course
Aronimink Golf Club
Field
156 players
Player Profile — Fitzpatrick, Matt
Strokes Gained
+1.77/round
World Class
Course Fit
good
+0.237 SG adj
Expected Finish
62th / 156
Matchup Analysis
Fitzpatrick, Matt
+1.77 SG
EF 62th
Skill Gap
+0.11 SG/round
tight edge for Fitzpatrick, Matt
Fleetwood, Tommy
+1.66 SG
EF 66th · World Class
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
55.5%
Books Say
51.2%
Edge
+8.4%
Fitzpatrick, Matt vs Fleetwood, Tommy: Model gives Fitzpatrick, Matt 55.5% win probability vs 51.2% implied (+8.4% edge). Skill advantage: +0.11 SG/round. Expected finish: 62.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Fitzpatrick, Matt 55.5%
+8.4 pts
Spread
+0.1
+8.4 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →