Fitzpatrick, Matt vs Fleetwood, Tommy prediction for June 17, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Fleetwood, Tommy 23 - Fitzpatrick, Matt 50. Fitzpatrick, Matt is favored with a 54.0% win probability. The spread is 0.01.
Fleetwood, Tommy
+1.84
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • U.S. Open
Fitzpatrick, Matt
+1.82
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Fleetwood, TommyFitzpatrick, Matt
+107
Best Odds
+14.8%
Edge
1.0u HIGH
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Fitzpatrick, Matt
435057
Fleetwood, Tommy
162330
Tournament Context
Event
U.S. Open
Course
Shinnecock Hills Golf Club
Field
156 players
Player Profile — Fitzpatrick, Matt
Strokes Gained
+1.82/round
World Class
Course Fit
excellent
+0.405 SG adj
Expected Finish
50th / 156
Matchup Analysis
Fitzpatrick, Matt
+1.82 SG
EF 50th
Skill Gap
+0.01 SG/round
essentially a coin flip
Fleetwood, Tommy
+1.84 SG
EF 23th · World Class
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
54.0%
Books Say
48.3%
Edge
+14.8%
Fitzpatrick, Matt vs Fleetwood, Tommy: Model gives Fitzpatrick, Matt 54.0% win probability vs 48.3% implied (+11.8% edge). Expected finish: 50. AI: strong recent form; course specialist; weather/conditions favorable.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Fitzpatrick, Matt 54.0%
+14.8 pts
Spread
+0.0
+14.8 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →