Fowler, Rickie vs Scott, Adam prediction for May 5, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Scott, Adam 23 - Fowler, Rickie 18. Fowler, Rickie is favored with a 57.2% win probability. The spread is -0.07.
Scott, Adam
+1.26
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • Truist Championship
Fowler, Rickie
+1.20
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Scott, AdamFowler, Rickie
+100
Best Odds
+14.5%
Edge
1.5u HIGH
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Fowler, Rickie
111825
Scott, Adam
162330
Tournament Context
Event
Truist Championship
Course
Quail Hollow Club
Field
72 players
Wind
9 mph
Temp
72°F
Conditions
harder (+0.4)
Player Profile — Fowler, Rickie
Strokes Gained
+1.20/round
Tour Elite
Course Fit
poor
-0.363 SG adj
Expected Finish
18th / 72
Matchup Analysis
Fowler, Rickie
+1.20 SG
EF 18th
Skill Gap
-0.07 SG/round
essentially a coin flip
Scott, Adam
+1.26 SG
EF 23th · Tour Elite
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
57.2%
Books Say
50.0%
Edge
+14.5%
Fowler, Rickie vs Scott, Adam: Model gives Fowler, Rickie 57.2% win probability vs 50.0% implied (+14.5% edge). Expected finish: 18.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Fowler, Rickie 57.2%
+14.5 pts
Spread
-0.1
+14.5 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →