Fox, Ryan vs Cauley, Bud prediction for May 1, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Cauley, Bud 46 - Fox, Ryan 36. Fox, Ryan is favored with a 66.6% win probability. The spread is 0.15.
Cauley, Bud
+0.53
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • Truist Championship
Fox, Ryan
+0.67
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Cauley, BudFox, Ryan
-102
Best Odds
+31.9%
Edge
2.0u ELITE
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Fox, Ryan
293643
Cauley, Bud
394653
Tournament Context
Event
Truist Championship
Course
Quail Hollow Club
Field
72 players
Wind
9 mph
Temp
72°F
Conditions
harder (+0.4)
Player Profile — Fox, Ryan
Strokes Gained
+0.67/round
Above Avg
Course Fit
neutral
+0.038 SG adj
Expected Finish
36th / 72
Matchup Analysis
Fox, Ryan
+0.67 SG
EF 36th
Skill Gap
+0.15 SG/round
tight edge for Fox, Ryan
Cauley, Bud
+0.53 SG
EF 46th · Above Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
66.6%
Books Say
50.5%
Edge
+31.9%
Fox, Ryan vs Cauley, Bud: Model gives Fox, Ryan 66.6% win probability vs 50.5% implied (+31.9% edge). Skill advantage: +0.15 SG/round. Expected finish: 36.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Fox, Ryan 66.6%
+31.9 pts
Spread
+0.1
+31.9 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →