Fox, Ryan vs McCarty, Matt prediction for April 29, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects McCarty, Matt 25 - Fox, Ryan 19. Fox, Ryan is favored with a 61.0% win probability. The spread is -0.07.
McCarty, Matt
+0.70
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • Cadillac Championship
Fox, Ryan
+0.62
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
McCarty, MattFox, Ryan
+108
Best Odds
+26.8%
Edge
2.0u ELITE
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Fox, Ryan
121926
McCarty, Matt
182532
Tournament Context
Event
Cadillac Championship
Course
Trump National Doral (Blue Monster)
Field
72 players
Player Profile — Fox, Ryan
Strokes Gained
+0.62/round
Above Avg
Course Fit
poor
-0.078 SG adj
Expected Finish
19th / 72
Matchup Analysis
Fox, Ryan
+0.62 SG
EF 19th
Skill Gap
-0.07 SG/round
essentially a coin flip
McCarty, Matt
+0.70 SG
EF 25th · Above Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
61.0%
Books Say
48.1%
Edge
+26.8%
Fox, Ryan vs McCarty, Matt: Model gives Fox, Ryan 61.0% win probability vs 48.1% implied (+26.8% edge). Expected finish: 19.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Fox, Ryan 61.0%
+26.8 pts
Spread
-0.1
+26.8 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →