Gerard, Ryan vs Matsuyama, Hideki prediction for June 18, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Matsuyama, Hideki 41 - Gerard, Ryan 86. Gerard, Ryan is favored with a 56.1% win probability. The spread is 0.11.
Matsuyama, Hideki
+0.90
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • U.S. Open
Gerard, Ryan
+1.17
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Matsuyama, HidekiGerard, Ryan
-110
Best Odds
+7.1%
Edge
1.0u MEDIUM
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Gerard, Ryan
798693
Matsuyama, Hideki
344148
Tournament Context
Event
U.S. Open
Course
Shinnecock Hills Golf Club
Field
156 players
Player Profile — Gerard, Ryan
Strokes Gained
+1.17/round
Tour Elite
Course Fit
poor
-0.043 SG adj
Expected Finish
86th / 156
Matchup Analysis
Gerard, Ryan
+1.17 SG
EF 86th
Skill Gap
+0.11 SG/round
tight edge for Gerard, Ryan
Matsuyama, Hideki
+0.90 SG
EF 41th · Above Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
56.1%
Books Say
52.4%
Edge
+7.1%
Gerard, Ryan vs Matsuyama, Hideki: Model gives Gerard, Ryan 56.1% win probability vs 52.4% implied (+7.1% edge). Skill advantage: +0.11 SG/round. Expected finish: 86.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Gerard, Ryan 56.1%
+7.1 pts
Spread
+0.1
+7.1 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →