Gerard, Ryan vs Noren, Alex prediction for June 4, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Noren, Alex 66 - Gerard, Ryan 38. Gerard, Ryan is favored with a 51.0% win probability. The spread is -0.36.
Noren, Alex
+1.38
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • the Memorial Tournament presented by Workday
Gerard, Ryan
+0.84
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Noren, AlexGerard, Ryan
+111
Best Odds
+7.7%
Edge
1.0u MEDIUM
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Gerard, Ryan
313845
Noren, Alex
596673
Tournament Context
Event
the Memorial Tournament presented by Workday
Course
Muirfield Village GC
Field
72 players
Wind
13 mph
Temp
82°F
Conditions
harder (+0.6)
Player Profile — Gerard, Ryan
Strokes Gained
+0.84/round
Above Avg
Course Fit
good
+0.256 SG adj
Expected Finish
38th / 72
Matchup Analysis
Gerard, Ryan
+0.84 SG
EF 38th
Skill Gap
-0.36 SG/round
tight edge for Noren, Alex
Noren, Alex
+1.38 SG
EF 66th · Tour Elite
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
51.0%
Books Say
47.4%
Edge
+7.7%
Gerard, Ryan vs Noren, Alex: Model gives Gerard, Ryan 51.0% win probability vs 47.4% implied (+7.7% edge). Skill advantage: -0.36 SG/round. Expected finish: 38.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Gerard, Ryan 51.0%
+7.7 pts
Spread
-0.4
+7.7 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →