Ghim, Doug vs Kirk, Chris prediction for May 27, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Kirk, Chris 0 - Ghim, Doug 81. Ghim, Doug is favored with a 61.5% win probability. The spread is -0.18.
Kirk, Chris
+0.00
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • Charles Schwab Challenge
Ghim, Doug
+0.26
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Kirk, ChrisGhim, Doug
-112
Best Odds
+16.3%
Edge
1.5u HIGH
Sizing
Tournament Context
Event
Charles Schwab Challenge
Course
Colonial CC
Field
132 players
Wind
10 mph
Temp
86°F
Conditions
harder (+0.4)
Player Profile — Ghim, Doug
Strokes Gained
+0.26/round
Tour Avg
Course Fit
poor
-0.048 SG adj
Expected Finish
81th / 132
Matchup Analysis
Ghim, Doug
+0.26 SG
EF 81th
Skill Gap
-0.18 SG/round
tight edge for Kirk, Chris
Kirk, Chris
+0.00 SG
EF 0th · Tour Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
61.5%
Books Say
52.8%
Edge
+16.3%
Ghim, Doug vs Kirk, Chris: Model gives Ghim, Doug 61.5% win probability vs 52.8% implied (+16.3% edge). Skill advantage: -0.18 SG/round. Expected finish: 81.
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1
Ghim's modest advantage (−0.18 SG skill but +0.259 baseline) + neutral course fit yield a 15.9% edge; mid-tier variance dominates decision.
Key Factors
- Model: 61.2% vs 52.8% implied (+15.9% edge)
- Course fit: −0.048 (neutral, unhelpful for Ghim)
- Expected finish: 81 (deep field)
Risk Factors
- Skill edge minimal (−0.18 SG vs Kirk)
- Neutral course fit (−0.048)
- Deep-field variance (EF 81)
MODERATE EDGE
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Ghim, Doug 61.5%
+16.3 pts
Spread
-0.2
+16.3 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →