Ghim, Doug vs Kirk, Chris prediction for May 28, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Kirk, Chris 0 - Ghim, Doug 80. Ghim, Doug is favored with a 61.6% win probability. The spread is -0.18.
Kirk, Chris
+0.00
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • Charles Schwab Challenge
Ghim, Doug
+0.26
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Kirk, ChrisGhim, Doug
-112
Best Odds
+16.6%
Edge
1.5u HIGH
Sizing
Tournament Context
Event
Charles Schwab Challenge
Course
Colonial CC
Field
132 players
Wind
10 mph
Temp
91°F
Conditions
harder (+0.4)
Player Profile — Ghim, Doug
Strokes Gained
+0.26/round
Tour Avg
Course Fit
poor
-0.048 SG adj
Expected Finish
80th / 132
Matchup Analysis
Ghim, Doug
+0.26 SG
EF 80th
Skill Gap
-0.18 SG/round
tight edge for Kirk, Chris
Kirk, Chris
+0.00 SG
EF 0th · Tour Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
61.6%
Books Say
52.8%
Edge
+16.6%
Ghim, Doug vs Kirk, Chris: Model gives Ghim, Doug 61.6% win probability vs 52.8% implied (+16.6% edge). Skill advantage: -0.18 SG/round. Expected finish: 80.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Ghim, Doug 61.6%
+16.6 pts
Spread
-0.2
+16.6 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →