Ghim, Doug vs Smith, Jordan prediction for May 16, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Smith, Jordan 79 - Ghim, Doug 83. Ghim, Doug is favored with a 54.7% win probability. The spread is -0.15.
Smith, Jordan
+0.34
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson
Ghim, Doug
+0.19
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Smith, JordanGhim, Doug
-101
Best Odds
+8.8%
Edge
1.0u MEDIUM
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Ghim, Doug
768390
Smith, Jordan
727986
Tournament Context
Event
THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson
Course
TPC Craig Ranch
Field
147 players
Wind
15 mph
Temp
81°F
Conditions
harder (+0.8)
Player Profile — Ghim, Doug
Strokes Gained
+0.19/round
Tour Avg
Course Fit
good
+0.212 SG adj
Expected Finish
83th / 147
Matchup Analysis
Ghim, Doug
+0.19 SG
EF 83th
Skill Gap
-0.15 SG/round
tight edge for Smith, Jordan
Smith, Jordan
+0.34 SG
EF 79th · Tour Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
54.7%
Books Say
50.2%
Edge
+8.8%
Ghim, Doug vs Smith, Jordan: Model gives Ghim, Doug 54.7% win probability vs 50.2% implied (+8.8% edge). Skill advantage: -0.15 SG/round. Expected finish: 83.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Ghim, Doug 54.7%
+8.8 pts
Spread
-0.1
+8.8 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →