Ghim, Doug vs Smith, Jordan prediction for May 20, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Smith, Jordan 78 - Ghim, Doug 83. Ghim, Doug is favored with a 54.7% win probability. The spread is -0.15.
Smith, Jordan
+0.28
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson
Ghim, Doug
+0.19
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Smith, JordanGhim, Doug
-101
Best Odds
+8.8%
Edge
1.0u MEDIUM
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Ghim, Doug
768390
Smith, Jordan
717885
Tournament Context
Event
THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson
Course
TPC Craig Ranch
Field
147 players
Wind
15 mph
Temp
81°F
Conditions
harder (+0.8)
Player Profile — Ghim, Doug
Strokes Gained
+0.19/round
Tour Avg
Course Fit
good
+0.212 SG adj
Expected Finish
83th / 147
Matchup Analysis
Ghim, Doug
+0.19 SG
EF 83th
Skill Gap
-0.15 SG/round
tight edge for Smith, Jordan
Smith, Jordan
+0.28 SG
EF 78th · Tour Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
54.7%
Books Say
50.2%
Edge
+8.8%
Ghim, Doug vs Smith, Jordan: Model gives Ghim, Doug 54.7% win probability vs 50.2% implied (+8.8% edge). Skill advantage: -0.15 SG/round. Expected finish: 83.
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEANRED ZONE0.5% WR (n=380)
Ghim is a clear underdog with negative skill differential (-0.151 SG) and expected finish handicap (82 vs 78). 8.5% edge on -101 odds suggests model may be overconfident. Skip unless sharp action supports.
Key Factors
- SG Total: Ghim +0.193 vs Smith +0.341 (Smith is better)
- Course fit: Ghim +0.212 vs Smith +0.225 (Smith is slightly better)
- Expected finish: Ghim 82 vs Smith 78 (4-place disadvantage)
- Odds: -101 (implied 50.3% vs model 54.5% = +4.3% edge)
- Skill differential: -0.151 (Ghim is worse)
Risk Factors
- Ghim is a clear underdog with negative skill (-0.151 SG) and worse expected finish (82 vs 78)
- 8.5% edge on -101 odds is thin for a 4-place handicap matchup
- Model appears overconfident in Ghim vs a better player. This is likely false edge.
UNDERDOG RED FLAGNEGATIVE SKILLWORSE EFSKIP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Ghim, Doug 54.7%
+8.8 pts
Spread
-0.1
+8.8 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →