Gotterup, Chris vs Hojgaard, Nicolai prediction for May 6, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Hojgaard, Nicolai 87 - Gotterup, Chris 82. Gotterup, Chris is favored with a 56.0% win probability. The spread is -0.01.
Hojgaard, Nicolai
+1.22
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • PGA Championship
Gotterup, Chris
+1.21
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Hojgaard, NicolaiGotterup, Chris
+100
Best Odds
+12.1%
Edge
1.5u HIGH
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Gotterup, Chris
758289
Hojgaard, Nicolai
808794
Tournament Context
Event
PGA Championship
Course
Aronimink Golf Club
Field
156 players
Player Profile — Gotterup, Chris
Strokes Gained
+1.21/round
Tour Elite
Course Fit
good
+0.202 SG adj
Expected Finish
82th / 156
Matchup Analysis
Gotterup, Chris
+1.21 SG
EF 82th
Skill Gap
-0.01 SG/round
essentially a coin flip
Hojgaard, Nicolai
+1.22 SG
EF 87th · Tour Elite
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
56.0%
Books Say
50.0%
Edge
+12.1%
Gotterup, Chris vs Hojgaard, Nicolai: Model gives Gotterup, Chris 56.0% win probability vs 50.0% implied (+12.1% edge). Expected finish: 82.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Gotterup, Chris 56.0%
+12.1 pts
Spread
-0.0
+12.1 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →