Gotterup, Chris vs Hojgaard, Nicolai prediction for May 11, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Hojgaard, Nicolai 86 - Gotterup, Chris 81. Gotterup, Chris is favored with a 55.8% win probability. The spread is -0.01.
Hojgaard, Nicolai
+1.22
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • PGA Championship
Gotterup, Chris
+1.21
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Hojgaard, NicolaiGotterup, Chris
+100
Best Odds
+11.7%
Edge
1.0u HIGH
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Gotterup, Chris
748188
Hojgaard, Nicolai
798693
Tournament Context
Event
PGA Championship
Course
Aronimink Golf Club
Field
156 players
Player Profile — Gotterup, Chris
Strokes Gained
+1.21/round
Tour Elite
Course Fit
good
+0.202 SG adj
Expected Finish
81th / 156
Matchup Analysis
Gotterup, Chris
+1.21 SG
EF 81th
Skill Gap
-0.01 SG/round
essentially a coin flip
Hojgaard, Nicolai
+1.22 SG
EF 86th · Tour Elite
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
55.8%
Books Say
50.0%
Edge
+11.7%
Gotterup, Chris vs Hojgaard, Nicolai: Model gives Gotterup, Chris 55.8% win probability vs 50.0% implied (+11.7% edge). Expected finish: 81.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Gotterup, Chris 55.8%
+11.7 pts
Spread
-0.0
+11.7 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →