Gotterup, Chris vs McNealy, Maverick prediction for April 30, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects McNealy, Maverick 38 - Gotterup, Chris 23. Gotterup, Chris is favored with a 73.9% win probability. The spread is -0.13.
McNealy, Maverick
+1.33
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • Truist Championship
Gotterup, Chris
+1.17
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
McNealy, MaverickGotterup, Chris
-125
Best Odds
+33.0%
Edge
2.5u ELITE
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Gotterup, Chris
162330
McNealy, Maverick
313845
Tournament Context
Event
Truist Championship
Course
Quail Hollow Club
Field
72 players
Wind
9 mph
Temp
72°F
Conditions
harder (+0.4)
Player Profile — Gotterup, Chris
Strokes Gained
+1.17/round
Tour Elite
Course Fit
good
+0.189 SG adj
Expected Finish
23th / 72
Matchup Analysis
Gotterup, Chris
+1.17 SG
EF 23th
Skill Gap
-0.13 SG/round
tight edge for McNealy, Maverick
McNealy, Maverick
+1.33 SG
EF 38th · Tour Elite
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
73.9%
Books Say
55.6%
Edge
+33.0%
Gotterup, Chris vs McNealy, Maverick: Model gives Gotterup, Chris 73.9% win probability vs 55.6% implied (+33.0% edge). Skill advantage: -0.13 SG/round. Expected finish: 23.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Gotterup, Chris 73.9%
+33.0 pts
Spread
-0.1
+33.0 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →