Gotterup, Chris vs Spaun, J.J. prediction for June 18, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Spaun, J.J. 31 - Gotterup, Chris 79. Gotterup, Chris is favored with a 53.2% win probability. The spread is -0.11.
Spaun, J.J.
+1.33
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • U.S. Open
Gotterup, Chris
+1.37
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Spaun, J.J.Gotterup, Chris
+104
Best Odds
+8.5%
Edge
1.0u MEDIUM
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Gotterup, Chris
727986
Spaun, J.J.
243138
Tournament Context
Event
U.S. Open
Course
Shinnecock Hills Golf Club
Field
156 players
Player Profile — Gotterup, Chris
Strokes Gained
+1.37/round
Tour Elite
Course Fit
poor
-0.008 SG adj
Expected Finish
79th / 156
Matchup Analysis
Gotterup, Chris
+1.37 SG
EF 79th
Skill Gap
-0.11 SG/round
tight edge for Spaun, J.J.
Spaun, J.J.
+1.33 SG
EF 31th · Tour Elite
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
53.2%
Books Say
49.0%
Edge
+8.5%
Gotterup, Chris vs Spaun, J.J.: Model gives Gotterup, Chris 53.2% win probability vs 49.0% implied (+8.5% edge). Skill advantage: -0.11 SG/round. Expected finish: 79.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Gotterup, Chris 53.2%
+8.5 pts
Spread
-0.1
+8.5 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →