Greyserman, Max vs Olesen, Thorbjorn prediction for May 21, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Olesen, Thorbjorn 77 - Greyserman, Max 83. Greyserman, Max is favored with a 55.4% win probability. The spread is -0.13.
Olesen, Thorbjorn
+0.42
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson
Greyserman, Max
+0.40
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Olesen, ThorbjornGreyserman, Max
-110
Best Odds
+5.7%
Edge
1.0u MEDIUM
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Greyserman, Max
768390
Olesen, Thorbjorn
707784
Tournament Context
Event
THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson
Course
TPC Craig Ranch
Field
147 players
Wind
15 mph
Temp
82°F
Conditions
harder (+0.8)
Player Profile — Greyserman, Max
Strokes Gained
+0.40/round
Tour Avg
Course Fit
neutral
+0.034 SG adj
Expected Finish
83th / 147
Matchup Analysis
Greyserman, Max
+0.40 SG
EF 83th
Skill Gap
-0.13 SG/round
tight edge for Olesen, Thorbjorn
Olesen, Thorbjorn
+0.42 SG
EF 77th · Tour Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
55.4%
Books Say
52.4%
Edge
+5.7%
Greyserman, Max vs Olesen, Thorbjorn: Model gives Greyserman, Max 55.4% win probability vs 52.4% implied (+5.7% edge). Skill advantage: -0.13 SG/round. Expected finish: 83.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Greyserman, Max 55.4%
+5.7 pts
Spread
-0.1
+5.7 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →