Griffin, Ben vs MacIntyre, Robert prediction for May 26, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects MacIntyre, Robert 34 - Griffin, Ben 44. Griffin, Ben is favored with a 57.6% win probability. The spread is -0.1.
MacIntyre, Robert
+1.17
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • Charles Schwab Challenge
Griffin, Ben
+1.13
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
MacIntyre, RobertGriffin, Ben
-118
Best Odds
+6.3%
Edge
1.0u MEDIUM
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Griffin, Ben
374451
MacIntyre, Robert
273441
Tournament Context
Event
Charles Schwab Challenge
Course
Colonial CC
Field
132 players
Wind
8 mph
Temp
85°F
Conditions
harder (+0.3)
Player Profile — Griffin, Ben
Strokes Gained
+1.13/round
Tour Elite
Course Fit
excellent
+0.574 SG adj
Expected Finish
44th / 132
Matchup Analysis
Griffin, Ben
+1.13 SG
EF 44th
Skill Gap
-0.10 SG/round
essentially a coin flip
MacIntyre, Robert
+1.17 SG
EF 34th · Tour Elite
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
57.6%
Books Say
54.1%
Edge
+6.3%
Griffin, Ben vs MacIntyre, Robert: Model gives Griffin, Ben 57.6% win probability vs 54.1% implied (+6.3% edge). Expected finish: 44.
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +0
Griffin's +0.574 fit vs MacIntyre's +0.119 fit provides (+0.455 SG fit advantage), but MacIntyre's +0.105 SG skill advantage and nearly identical EF (43.9 vs 52.7) result in tight 57.7% model vs 54.5% market = low +5.8% relative edge; weak absolute edge warranting only LEAN.
Key Factors
- Course fit advantage: +0.455 SG (Griffin +0.574 vs MacIntyre +0.119)
- SG disadvantage: Griffin -0.105 vs MacIntyre (MacIntyre has skill edge)
- Expected finish: Griffin 43.9 vs MacIntyre 52.7 = 8-position gap
- Betonline -120 = 54.5% market, model 57.7% = only +3.2% absolute edge
Risk Factors
- Only +3.2% absolute probability edge — tightest margin in matchup set
- MacIntyre's SG advantage (+0.105) partially offsets Griffin's fit
- If MacIntyre's skill is weighted higher than model assumes, edge disappears
COURSE FIT DEPENDENTWEAK EDGESKILL OFFSET
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Griffin, Ben 57.6%
+6.3 pts
Spread
-0.1
+6.3 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →