Griffin, Ben vs Smalley, Alex prediction for June 18, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Smalley, Alex 40 - Griffin, Ben 80. Griffin, Ben is favored with a 63.3% win probability. The spread is 0.16.
Smalley, Alex
+0.88
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • U.S. Open
Griffin, Ben
+1.20
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Smalley, AlexGriffin, Ben
-130
Best Odds
+11.9%
Edge
1.5u HIGH
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Griffin, Ben
738087
Smalley, Alex
334047
Tournament Context
Event
U.S. Open
Course
Shinnecock Hills Golf Club
Field
156 players
Player Profile — Griffin, Ben
Strokes Gained
+1.20/round
Tour Elite
Course Fit
neutral
+0.130 SG adj
Expected Finish
80th / 156
Matchup Analysis
Griffin, Ben
+1.20 SG
EF 80th
Skill Gap
+0.16 SG/round
tight edge for Griffin, Ben
Smalley, Alex
+0.88 SG
EF 40th · Above Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
63.3%
Books Say
56.5%
Edge
+11.9%
Griffin, Ben vs Smalley, Alex: Model gives Griffin, Ben 63.3% win probability vs 56.5% implied (+11.9% edge). Skill advantage: +0.16 SG/round. Expected finish: 80.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Griffin, Ben 63.3%
+11.9 pts
Spread
+0.2
+11.9 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →