Griffin, Ben vs Spaun, J.J. prediction for May 26, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Spaun, J.J. 29 - Griffin, Ben 44. Griffin, Ben is favored with a 58.2% win probability. The spread is -0.13.
Spaun, J.J.
+1.37
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • Charles Schwab Challenge
Griffin, Ben
+1.13
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Spaun, J.J.Griffin, Ben
-119
Best Odds
+7.0%
Edge
1.0u MEDIUM
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Griffin, Ben
374451
Spaun, J.J.
222936
Tournament Context
Event
Charles Schwab Challenge
Course
Colonial CC
Field
132 players
Wind
8 mph
Temp
85°F
Conditions
harder (+0.3)
Player Profile — Griffin, Ben
Strokes Gained
+1.13/round
Tour Elite
Course Fit
excellent
+0.574 SG adj
Expected Finish
44th / 132
Matchup Analysis
Griffin, Ben
+1.13 SG
EF 44th
Skill Gap
-0.13 SG/round
tight edge for Spaun, J.J.
Spaun, J.J.
+1.37 SG
EF 29th · Tour Elite
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
58.2%
Books Say
54.3%
Edge
+7.0%
Griffin, Ben vs Spaun, J.J.: Model gives Griffin, Ben 58.2% win probability vs 54.3% implied (+7.0% edge). Skill advantage: -0.13 SG/round. Expected finish: 44.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Griffin, Ben 58.2%
+7.0 pts
Spread
-0.1
+7.0 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →