Griffin, Ben vs Spaun, J.J. prediction for May 28, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Spaun, J.J. 35 - Griffin, Ben 43. Griffin, Ben is favored with a 58.0% win probability. The spread is -0.13.
Spaun, J.J.
+1.24
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • Charles Schwab Challenge
Griffin, Ben
+1.13
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Spaun, J.J.Griffin, Ben
-117
Best Odds
+7.6%
Edge
1.0u MEDIUM
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Griffin, Ben
364350
Spaun, J.J.
283542
Tournament Context
Event
Charles Schwab Challenge
Course
Colonial CC
Field
132 players
Wind
10 mph
Temp
91°F
Conditions
harder (+0.4)
Player Profile — Griffin, Ben
Strokes Gained
+1.13/round
Tour Elite
Course Fit
excellent
+0.574 SG adj
Expected Finish
43th / 132
Matchup Analysis
Griffin, Ben
+1.13 SG
EF 43th
Skill Gap
-0.13 SG/round
tight edge for Spaun, J.J.
Spaun, J.J.
+1.24 SG
EF 35th · Tour Elite
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
58.0%
Books Say
53.9%
Edge
+7.6%
Griffin, Ben vs Spaun, J.J.: Model gives Griffin, Ben 58.0% win probability vs 53.9% implied (+7.6% edge). Skill advantage: -0.13 SG/round. Expected finish: 43.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Griffin, Ben 58.0%
+7.6 pts
Spread
-0.1
+7.6 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →