Griffin, Ben vs Thomas, Justin prediction for May 27, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Thomas, Justin 0 - Griffin, Ben 43. Griffin, Ben is favored with a 60.0% win probability. The spread is 0.05.
Thomas, Justin
+0.00
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • Charles Schwab Challenge
Griffin, Ben
+1.13
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Thomas, JustinGriffin, Ben
-105
Best Odds
+17.1%
Edge
1.5u ELITE
Sizing
Tournament Context
Event
Charles Schwab Challenge
Course
Colonial CC
Field
132 players
Wind
10 mph
Temp
86°F
Conditions
harder (+0.4)
Player Profile — Griffin, Ben
Strokes Gained
+1.13/round
Tour Elite
Course Fit
excellent
+0.574 SG adj
Expected Finish
43th / 132
Matchup Analysis
Griffin, Ben
+1.13 SG
EF 43th
Skill Gap
+0.05 SG/round
essentially a coin flip
Thomas, Justin
+0.00 SG
EF 0th · Tour Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
60.0%
Books Say
51.2%
Edge
+17.1%
Griffin, Ben vs Thomas, Justin: Model gives Griffin, Ben 60.0% win probability vs 51.2% implied (+17.1% edge). Expected finish: 43.
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Griffin, Ben 60.0%
+17.1 pts
Spread
+0.1
+17.1 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded Golf 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the Golf 2026 season report card.