Griffin, Ben vs Thomas, Justin prediction for May 28, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Thomas, Justin 41 - Griffin, Ben 43. Griffin, Ben is favored with a 59.7% win probability. The spread is 0.05.
Thomas, Justin
+1.06
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • Charles Schwab Challenge
Griffin, Ben
+1.13
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Thomas, JustinGriffin, Ben
-105
Best Odds
+16.6%
Edge
1.5u ELITE
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Griffin, Ben
364350
Thomas, Justin
344148
Tournament Context
Event
Charles Schwab Challenge
Course
Colonial CC
Field
132 players
Wind
10 mph
Temp
91°F
Conditions
harder (+0.4)
Player Profile — Griffin, Ben
Strokes Gained
+1.13/round
Tour Elite
Course Fit
excellent
+0.574 SG adj
Expected Finish
43th / 132
Matchup Analysis
Griffin, Ben
+1.13 SG
EF 43th
Skill Gap
+0.05 SG/round
essentially a coin flip
Thomas, Justin
+1.06 SG
EF 41th · Tour Elite
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
59.7%
Books Say
51.2%
Edge
+16.6%
Griffin, Ben vs Thomas, Justin: Model gives Griffin, Ben 59.7% win probability vs 51.2% implied (+16.6% edge). Expected finish: 43.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Griffin, Ben 59.7%
+16.6 pts
Spread
+0.1
+16.6 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →