Griffin, Ben vs Woodland, Gary prediction for May 10, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Woodland, Gary 95 - Griffin, Ben 90. Griffin, Ben is favored with a 60.2% win probability. The spread is 0.26.
Woodland, Gary
+0.75
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • PGA Championship
Griffin, Ben
+1.02
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Woodland, GaryGriffin, Ben
-125
Best Odds
+8.3%
Edge
1.0u MEDIUM
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Griffin, Ben
839097
Woodland, Gary
8895102
Tournament Context
Event
PGA Championship
Course
Aronimink Golf Club
Field
156 players
Player Profile — Griffin, Ben
Strokes Gained
+1.02/round
Tour Elite
Course Fit
neutral
+0.134 SG adj
Expected Finish
90th / 156
Matchup Analysis
Griffin, Ben
+1.02 SG
EF 90th
Skill Gap
+0.26 SG/round
tight edge for Griffin, Ben
Woodland, Gary
+0.75 SG
EF 95th · Above Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
60.2%
Books Say
55.6%
Edge
+8.3%
Griffin, Ben vs Woodland, Gary: Model gives Griffin, Ben 60.2% win probability vs 55.6% implied (+8.3% edge). Skill advantage: +0.26 SG/round. Expected finish: 90.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Griffin, Ben 60.2%
+8.3 pts
Spread
+0.3
+8.3 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →