Hadwin, Adam vs Grillo, Emiliano prediction for June 11, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Grillo, Emiliano 113 - Hadwin, Adam 101. Hadwin, Adam is favored with a 60.5% win probability. The spread is -0.28.
Grillo, Emiliano
-0.01
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • RBC Canadian Open
Hadwin, Adam
-0.43
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Grillo, EmilianoHadwin, Adam
+117
Best Odds
+31.3%
Edge
2.0u HIGH
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Hadwin, Adam
94101108
Grillo, Emiliano
106113120
Tournament Context
Event
RBC Canadian Open
Course
TPC Toronto at Osprey Valley (North Course)
Field
147 players
Player Profile — Hadwin, Adam
Strokes Gained
-0.43/round
Below Avg
Course Fit
good
+0.298 SG adj
Expected Finish
101th / 147
Matchup Analysis
Hadwin, Adam
-0.43 SG
EF 101th
Skill Gap
-0.28 SG/round
tight edge for Grillo, Emiliano
Grillo, Emiliano
-0.01 SG
EF 113th · Below Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
60.5%
Books Say
46.1%
Edge
+31.3%
Hadwin, Adam vs Grillo, Emiliano: Model gives Hadwin, Adam 60.5% win probability vs 46.1% implied (+31.3% edge). Skill advantage: -0.28 SG/round. Expected finish: 101.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Hadwin, Adam 60.5%
+31.3 pts
Spread
-0.3
+31.3 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →