Hall, Harry vs Day, Jason prediction for May 10, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Day, Jason 98 - Hall, Harry 92. Hall, Harry is favored with a 60.9% win probability. The spread is 0.29.
Day, Jason
+0.75
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • PGA Championship
Hall, Harry
+1.03
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Day, JasonHall, Harry
-112
Best Odds
+15.3%
Edge
1.5u ELITE
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Hall, Harry
859299
Day, Jason
9198105
Tournament Context
Event
PGA Championship
Course
Aronimink Golf Club
Field
156 players
Player Profile — Hall, Harry
Strokes Gained
+1.03/round
Tour Elite
Course Fit
neutral
+0.050 SG adj
Expected Finish
92th / 156
Matchup Analysis
Hall, Harry
+1.03 SG
EF 92th
Skill Gap
+0.29 SG/round
tight edge for Hall, Harry
Day, Jason
+0.75 SG
EF 98th · Above Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
60.9%
Books Say
52.8%
Edge
+15.3%
Hall, Harry vs Day, Jason: Model gives Hall, Harry 60.9% win probability vs 52.8% implied (+15.3% edge). Skill advantage: +0.29 SG/round. Expected finish: 92.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Hall, Harry 60.9%
+15.3 pts
Spread
+0.3
+15.3 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →