Hatton, Tyrrell vs Matsuyama, Hideki prediction for May 12, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Matsuyama, Hideki 86 - Hatton, Tyrrell 99. Hatton, Tyrrell is favored with a 53.4% win probability. The spread is -0.17.
Matsuyama, Hideki
+1.03
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • PGA Championship
Hatton, Tyrrell
+0.86
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Matsuyama, HidekiHatton, Tyrrell
+100
Best Odds
+6.8%
Edge
1.0u MEDIUM
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Hatton, Tyrrell
9299106
Matsuyama, Hideki
798693
Tournament Context
Event
PGA Championship
Course
Aronimink Golf Club
Field
156 players
Player Profile — Hatton, Tyrrell
Strokes Gained
+0.86/round
Above Avg
Course Fit
poor
-0.060 SG adj
Expected Finish
99th / 156
Matchup Analysis
Hatton, Tyrrell
+0.86 SG
EF 99th
Skill Gap
-0.17 SG/round
tight edge for Matsuyama, Hideki
Matsuyama, Hideki
+1.03 SG
EF 86th · Tour Elite
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
53.4%
Books Say
50.0%
Edge
+6.8%
Hatton, Tyrrell vs Matsuyama, Hideki: Model gives Hatton, Tyrrell 53.4% win probability vs 50.0% implied (+6.8% edge). Skill advantage: -0.17 SG/round. Expected finish: 99.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Hatton, Tyrrell 53.4%
+6.8 pts
Spread
-0.2
+6.8 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →