Henley, Russell vs Cantlay, Patrick prediction for May 10, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Cantlay, Patrick 86 - Henley, Russell 57. Henley, Russell is favored with a 53.9% win probability. The spread is 0.13.
Cantlay, Patrick
+1.50
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • PGA Championship
Henley, Russell
+1.62
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Cantlay, PatrickHenley, Russell
+110
Best Odds
+13.1%
Edge
1.0u HIGH
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Henley, Russell
505764
Cantlay, Patrick
798693
Tournament Context
Event
PGA Championship
Course
Aronimink Golf Club
Field
156 players
Player Profile — Henley, Russell
Strokes Gained
+1.62/round
World Class
Course Fit
excellent
+0.575 SG adj
Expected Finish
57th / 156
Matchup Analysis
Henley, Russell
+1.62 SG
EF 57th
Skill Gap
+0.13 SG/round
tight edge for Henley, Russell
Cantlay, Patrick
+1.50 SG
EF 86th · Tour Elite
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
53.9%
Books Say
47.6%
Edge
+13.1%
Henley, Russell vs Cantlay, Patrick: Model gives Henley, Russell 53.9% win probability vs 47.6% implied (+13.1% edge). Skill advantage: +0.13 SG/round. Expected finish: 57.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Henley, Russell 53.9%
+13.1 pts
Spread
+0.1
+13.1 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →