Henley, Russell vs Matsuyama, Hideki prediction for May 16, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Matsuyama, Hideki 86 - Henley, Russell 69. Henley, Russell is favored with a 61.0% win probability. The spread is 0.61.
Matsuyama, Hideki
+1.03
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • PGA Championship
Henley, Russell
+1.62
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Matsuyama, HidekiHenley, Russell
-120
Best Odds
+11.8%
Edge
1.5u HIGH
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Henley, Russell
626976
Matsuyama, Hideki
798693
Tournament Context
Event
PGA Championship
Course
Aronimink Golf Club
Field
156 players
Player Profile — Henley, Russell
Strokes Gained
+1.62/round
World Class
Course Fit
good
+0.173 SG adj
Expected Finish
69th / 156
Matchup Analysis
Henley, Russell
+1.62 SG
EF 69th
Skill Gap
+0.61 SG/round
meaningful edge for Henley, Russell
Matsuyama, Hideki
+1.03 SG
EF 86th · Tour Elite
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
61.0%
Books Say
54.5%
Edge
+11.8%
Henley, Russell vs Matsuyama, Hideki: Model gives Henley, Russell 61.0% win probability vs 54.5% implied (+11.8% edge). Skill advantage: +0.61 SG/round. Expected finish: 69.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Henley, Russell 61.0%
+11.8 pts
Spread
+0.6
+11.8 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →