Henley, Russell vs McNealy, Maverick prediction for April 30, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects McNealy, Maverick 30 - Henley, Russell 24. Henley, Russell is favored with a 64.2% win probability. The spread is 0.44.
McNealy, Maverick
+1.37
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • Cadillac Championship
Henley, Russell
+1.78
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
McNealy, MaverickHenley, Russell
-123
Best Odds
+16.3%
Edge
1.5u ELITE
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Henley, Russell
172431
McNealy, Maverick
233037
Tournament Context
Event
Cadillac Championship
Course
Trump National Doral (Blue Monster)
Field
72 players
Player Profile — Henley, Russell
Strokes Gained
+1.78/round
World Class
Course Fit
poor
-0.278 SG adj
Expected Finish
24th / 72
Matchup Analysis
Henley, Russell
+1.78 SG
EF 24th
Skill Gap
+0.44 SG/round
meaningful edge for Henley, Russell
McNealy, Maverick
+1.37 SG
EF 30th · Tour Elite
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
64.2%
Books Say
55.2%
Edge
+16.3%
Henley, Russell vs McNealy, Maverick: Model gives Henley, Russell 64.2% win probability vs 55.2% implied (+16.3% edge). Skill advantage: +0.44 SG/round. Expected finish: 24.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Henley, Russell 64.2%
+16.3 pts
Spread
+0.4
+16.3 pts
More Projections Today
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →