Henley, Russell vs Thomas, Justin prediction for June 18, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Thomas, Justin 31 - Henley, Russell 62. Henley, Russell is favored with a 61.8% win probability. The spread is 0.47.
Thomas, Justin
+1.32
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • U.S. Open
Henley, Russell
+1.71
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Thomas, JustinHenley, Russell
-131
Best Odds
+8.9%
Edge
1.0u MEDIUM
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Henley, Russell
556269
Thomas, Justin
243138
Tournament Context
Event
U.S. Open
Course
Shinnecock Hills Golf Club
Field
156 players
Player Profile — Henley, Russell
Strokes Gained
+1.71/round
World Class
Course Fit
neutral
+0.121 SG adj
Expected Finish
62th / 156
Matchup Analysis
Henley, Russell
+1.71 SG
EF 62th
Skill Gap
+0.47 SG/round
meaningful edge for Henley, Russell
Thomas, Justin
+1.32 SG
EF 31th · Tour Elite
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
61.8%
Books Say
56.7%
Edge
+8.9%
Henley, Russell vs Thomas, Justin: Model gives Henley, Russell 61.8% win probability vs 56.7% implied (+8.9% edge). Skill advantage: +0.47 SG/round. Expected finish: 62.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Henley, Russell 61.8%
+8.9 pts
Spread
+0.5
+8.9 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →