Hodges, Lee vs Hubbard, Mark prediction for May 12, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Hubbard, Mark 89 - Hodges, Lee 93. Hodges, Lee is favored with a 58.4% win probability. The spread is 0.14.
Hubbard, Mark
-0.14
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson
Hodges, Lee
-0.00
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Hubbard, MarkHodges, Lee
-118
Best Odds
+7.9%
Edge
1.0u MEDIUM
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Hodges, Lee
8693100
Hubbard, Mark
828996
Tournament Context
Event
THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson
Course
TPC Craig Ranch
Field
147 players
Wind
14 mph
Temp
82°F
Conditions
harder (+0.7)
Player Profile — Hodges, Lee
Strokes Gained
-0.00/round
Below Avg
Course Fit
neutral
+0.031 SG adj
Expected Finish
93th / 147
Matchup Analysis
Hodges, Lee
-0.00 SG
EF 93th
Skill Gap
+0.14 SG/round
tight edge for Hodges, Lee
Hubbard, Mark
-0.14 SG
EF 89th · Below Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
58.4%
Books Say
54.1%
Edge
+7.9%
Hodges, Lee vs Hubbard, Mark: Model gives Hodges, Lee 58.4% win probability vs 54.1% implied (+7.9% edge). Skill advantage: +0.14 SG/round. Expected finish: 93.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Hodges, Lee 58.4%
+7.9 pts
Spread
+0.1
+7.9 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →