PGA Tour Golf

Hodges, Lee vs Hubbard, Mark Prediction

May 15, 2026

10,000 Monte Carlo simulations

Hodges, Lee vs Hubbard, Mark prediction for May 15, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Hubbard, Mark 89 - Hodges, Lee 94. Hodges, Lee is favored with a 58.2% win probability. The spread is 0.14.

Hubbard, Mark
-0.14
Strokes Gained / Round
VS H2H • THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson
Hodges, Lee
-0.00
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
41.8%
58.2%
Hubbard, MarkHodges, Lee
-118
Best Odds
+7.6%
Edge
1.0u MEDIUM
Sizing
FINALHubbard, Mark (T23) def Hodges, Lee (T82)

Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile

Hodges, Lee
8794101
Hubbard, Mark
828996

Tournament Context

Event
THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson
Course
TPC Craig Ranch
Field
147 players
Wind
15 mph
Temp
81°F
Conditions
harder (+0.8)

Player Profile — Hodges, Lee

Strokes Gained
-0.00/round
Below Avg
Course Fit
neutral
+0.031 SG adj
Expected Finish
94th / 147

Matchup Analysis

Hodges, Lee
-0.00 SG
EF 94th
Skill Gap
+0.14 SG/round
tight edge for Hodges, Lee
Hubbard, Mark
-0.14 SG
EF 89th · Below Avg

Edge Breakdown

Our Model
58.2%
Books Say
54.1%
Edge
+7.6%

Hodges, Lee vs Hubbard, Mark: Model gives Hodges, Lee 58.2% win probability vs 54.1% implied (+7.6% edge). Skill advantage: +0.14 SG/round. Expected finish: 94.

Edge Analysis

Moneyline
Hodges, Lee 58.2%
+7.6 pts
Spread
+0.1
+7.6 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →

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