Hodges, Lee vs Hubbard, Mark prediction for May 20, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Hubbard, Mark 90 - Hodges, Lee 94. Hodges, Lee is favored with a 58.2% win probability. The spread is 0.14.
Hubbard, Mark
-0.04
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson
Hodges, Lee
-0.00
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Hubbard, MarkHodges, Lee
-118
Best Odds
+7.6%
Edge
1.0u MEDIUM
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Hodges, Lee
8794101
Hubbard, Mark
839097
Tournament Context
Event
THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson
Course
TPC Craig Ranch
Field
147 players
Wind
15 mph
Temp
81°F
Conditions
harder (+0.8)
Player Profile — Hodges, Lee
Strokes Gained
-0.00/round
Below Avg
Course Fit
neutral
+0.031 SG adj
Expected Finish
94th / 147
Matchup Analysis
Hodges, Lee
-0.00 SG
EF 94th
Skill Gap
+0.14 SG/round
tight edge for Hodges, Lee
Hubbard, Mark
-0.04 SG
EF 90th · Below Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
58.2%
Books Say
54.1%
Edge
+7.6%
Hodges, Lee vs Hubbard, Mark: Model gives Hodges, Lee 58.2% win probability vs 54.1% implied (+7.6% edge). Skill advantage: +0.14 SG/round. Expected finish: 94.
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEANYELLOW ZONE0.5% WR (n=380)
Hodges has modest course fit (+0.031 SG) and skill edge (+0.142 SG differential). Expected finishes are tied (~93-94), and 7.0% edge on -119 is thin and fairly priced. Skip.
Key Factors
- SG Total: Hodges -0.001 (essentially neutral) vs Hubbard -0.14 (worse)
- Course fit: Hodges +0.031 (minimal advantage)
- Expected finish: Hodges 94 vs Hubbard 89 (5-place gap in Hodges' favor)
- Odds: -119 (implied 54.3% vs model 58.1% = +3.8% edge)
- Skill differential: +0.142 (Hodges is slightly better)
Risk Factors
- Hodges has nearly neutral skill (SG -0.001); Hubbard is below field average (-0.14 SG)
- Course fit advantage is minimal (+0.031 SG)
- 7.0% edge is thin and fairly priced at -119
MARGINAL EDGEMINIMAL SKILLBACK OF FIELDSKIP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Hodges, Lee 58.2%
+7.6 pts
Spread
+0.1
+7.6 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →