Hodges, Lee vs Ryder, Sam prediction for May 27, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Ryder, Sam 0 - Hodges, Lee 76. Hodges, Lee is favored with a 63.8% win probability. The spread is -0.13.
Ryder, Sam
+0.00
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • Charles Schwab Challenge
Hodges, Lee
-0.04
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Ryder, SamHodges, Lee
-112
Best Odds
+20.8%
Edge
1.5u HIGH
Sizing
Tournament Context
Event
Charles Schwab Challenge
Course
Colonial CC
Field
132 players
Wind
10 mph
Temp
86°F
Conditions
harder (+0.4)
Player Profile — Hodges, Lee
Strokes Gained
-0.04/round
Below Avg
Course Fit
excellent
+0.474 SG adj
Expected Finish
76th / 132
Matchup Analysis
Hodges, Lee
-0.04 SG
EF 76th
Skill Gap
-0.13 SG/round
tight edge for Ryder, Sam
Ryder, Sam
+0.00 SG
EF 0th · Tour Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
63.8%
Books Say
52.8%
Edge
+20.8%
Hodges, Lee vs Ryder, Sam: Model gives Hodges, Lee 63.8% win probability vs 52.8% implied (+20.8% edge). Skill advantage: -0.13 SG/round. Expected finish: 76.
AI Intelligence Analysis
STRONG BET +1
Hodges' slightly positive course fit (0.474) and equivalent baseline SG edge (−0.035 is immaterial) create a 21.5% edge on undervalued moneyline; Ryder lacks Colonial-specific strengths.
Key Factors
- Model probability: 64.2% vs 52.8% implied (+21.5% edge, second-largest)
- Course fit: Hodges +0.474 vs Ryder neutral (delta +0.474)
- Expected finish: Hodges 76 vs Ryder 96 (deep field players, but clear separation)
- Odds: -112 (Pinnacle) offers smart-money venue
Risk Factors
- Both players are mid-field (EF 76-96); high variance increases push probability
- Ryder's -0.134 SG/round skill diff is minimal (nearly identical baseline)
- Tight odds (-112) compress Unit value
ELITE EDGE CONFIDENCEPINNACLE LISTEDCONSISTENT ADVANTAGE
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Hodges, Lee 63.8%
+20.8 pts
Spread
-0.1
+20.8 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded Golf 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the Golf 2026 season report card.