Hoey, Rico vs Greyserman, Max prediction for May 4, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Greyserman, Max 82 - Hoey, Rico 91. Hoey, Rico is favored with a 54.8% win probability. The spread is -0.2.
Greyserman, Max
+0.40
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson
Hoey, Rico
+0.20
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Greyserman, MaxHoey, Rico
-105
Best Odds
+7.0%
Edge
1.0u MEDIUM
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Hoey, Rico
849198
Greyserman, Max
758289
Tournament Context
Event
THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson
Course
TPC Craig Ranch
Field
147 players
Wind
14 mph
Temp
82°F
Conditions
harder (+0.7)
Player Profile — Hoey, Rico
Strokes Gained
+0.20/round
Tour Avg
Course Fit
poor
-0.049 SG adj
Expected Finish
91th / 147
Matchup Analysis
Hoey, Rico
+0.20 SG
EF 91th
Skill Gap
-0.20 SG/round
tight edge for Greyserman, Max
Greyserman, Max
+0.40 SG
EF 82th · Tour Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
54.8%
Books Say
51.2%
Edge
+7.0%
Hoey, Rico vs Greyserman, Max: Model gives Hoey, Rico 54.8% win probability vs 51.2% implied (+7.0% edge). Skill advantage: -0.20 SG/round. Expected finish: 91.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Hoey, Rico 54.8%
+7.0 pts
Spread
-0.2
+7.0 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →