Hoey, Rico vs Greyserman, Max prediction for May 20, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Greyserman, Max 78 - Hoey, Rico 90. Hoey, Rico is favored with a 55.0% win probability. The spread is -0.2.
Greyserman, Max
+0.56
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson
Hoey, Rico
+0.20
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Greyserman, MaxHoey, Rico
-105
Best Odds
+7.5%
Edge
1.0u MEDIUM
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Hoey, Rico
839097
Greyserman, Max
717885
Tournament Context
Event
THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson
Course
TPC Craig Ranch
Field
147 players
Wind
15 mph
Temp
81°F
Conditions
harder (+0.8)
Player Profile — Hoey, Rico
Strokes Gained
+0.20/round
Tour Avg
Course Fit
poor
-0.049 SG adj
Expected Finish
90th / 147
Matchup Analysis
Hoey, Rico
+0.20 SG
EF 90th
Skill Gap
-0.20 SG/round
tight edge for Greyserman, Max
Greyserman, Max
+0.56 SG
EF 78th · Above Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
55.0%
Books Say
51.2%
Edge
+7.5%
Hoey, Rico vs Greyserman, Max: Model gives Hoey, Rico 55.0% win probability vs 51.2% implied (+7.5% edge). Skill advantage: -0.20 SG/round. Expected finish: 90.
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEANRED ZONE0.5% WR (n=380)
Hoey has negative skill differential (-0.2 SG) but modest course fit advantage (-0.049 SG is actually slightly negative). 10.6% edge on even money (+100) is derived from minimal factors. Skip unless odds improve significantly.
Key Factors
- SG Total: Hoey +0.195 (modest skill)
- Course fit: Hoey -0.049 SG (actually NEGATIVE fit)
- Expected finish: Hoey 90 vs Greyserman 82+ (8-place gap but EF spread is deceptive)
- Odds: +100 (implied 50.0% vs model 55.3% = +5.3% edge)
- Skill differential: -0.200 (Hoey is worse)
Risk Factors
- CRITICAL: Hoey has NEGATIVE course fit at TPC Craig Ranch (-0.049 SG). He does NOT fit this course.
- Hoey has a negative skill differential vs Greyserman (-0.2 SG). This is backwards.
- 10.6% edge appears to be noise from expected finish gap, not real skill advantage
NEGATIVE COURSE FITNEGATIVE SKILL DIFFRED FLAGSKIP RECOMMENDED
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Hoey, Rico 55.0%
+7.5 pts
Spread
-0.2
+7.5 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →