Hoey, Rico vs Moore, Taylor prediction for May 27, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Moore, Taylor 0 - Hoey, Rico 84. Hoey, Rico is favored with a 62.4% win probability. The spread is 0.05.
Moore, Taylor
+0.00
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • Charles Schwab Challenge
Hoey, Rico
+0.29
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Moore, TaylorHoey, Rico
-112
Best Odds
+18.2%
Edge
1.5u HIGH
Sizing
Tournament Context
Event
Charles Schwab Challenge
Course
Colonial CC
Field
132 players
Wind
10 mph
Temp
86°F
Conditions
harder (+0.4)
Player Profile — Hoey, Rico
Strokes Gained
+0.29/round
Tour Avg
Course Fit
poor
-0.193 SG adj
Expected Finish
84th / 132
Matchup Analysis
Hoey, Rico
+0.29 SG
EF 84th
Skill Gap
+0.05 SG/round
essentially a coin flip
Moore, Taylor
+0.00 SG
EF 0th · Tour Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
62.4%
Books Say
52.8%
Edge
+18.2%
Hoey, Rico vs Moore, Taylor: Model gives Hoey, Rico 62.4% win probability vs 52.8% implied (+18.2% edge). Expected finish: 84.
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1
Hoey's modest SG advantage (0.289) and slight course fit negative (−0.193) support 19.1% edge primarily via skill, not fit; deep-field variance is elevated.
Key Factors
- Model: 62.9% vs 52.8% implied (+19.1% edge)
- SG differential: Hoey +0.289 (modest but consistent)
- Expected finishes: Hoey 84 vs Moore uncertain (mid-field players)
- Odds: −112 (Pinnacle) is competitive
Risk Factors
- Both players expected finish 80+, high variance zone
- Hoey's course fit negative (−0.193) dilutes edge
- Deep field (84+ ranking) increases match volatility
MODERATE EDGESKILL BASED
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Hoey, Rico 62.4%
+18.2 pts
Spread
+0.1
+18.2 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →